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The 2019 Winter Review and Spring Runoff Prediction

Apr 26, 2019
2 min

The 2019 Winter Review and Spring Runoff Prediction

The 2019 winter was officially a winner! The most encouraging sight was seeing the drinking water reservoirs cascading over their spillways! The low elevation snow-melt topped off all of the uptown reservoirs, which is pretty incredible considering that Lake Hatcher was 9 feet down, and Steven's Reservoir was 14 feet down last fall! After a fabulous February at the Upper San Juan SNOTEL site (12.5 inches of water), March matched the moisture and raised it (13.9 inches of wa

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March Snowfall Trends

Mar 9, 2019
2 min

March Snowfall Trends

After a near record-setting February, March is off to a great start, and more storms are on the way! Snow conditions are polar opposite than last year. Currently at the Upper Upper San Juan SNOTEL site, there is 32.8 inches water stored in the 113-inch snowpack, which is 2.5 times more water than we had last year at this time. Normally at this time, there is 27.2 inches of water, which means we have 5.6 inches more water in the snowpack than normal. More impressively, we'

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New Snow Record?

Feb 23, 2019
2 min

New Snow Record?

Have we broken any snow depth records this year? To answer that question, I plotted March 1st snow depths over the last 20 winters. Unfortunately, low elevation snow depth numbers are scarce so I used data from the Wolf Creek Summit SNOTEL site. The amount of snow in the mountains can approximate the type of winter we experience in town, except sometimes it rains in town when it snows in the mountains (like it did this year). And, low elevation snowpack often melts in betw

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Current Snow Situation

Feb 9, 2019
1 min

Current Snow Situation

Wondering how our current snowpack stacks up against last year and the historic average? Storms this past week added about four inches of water to the Upper San Juan SNOTEL site on Wolf Creek Pass! Currently, the site hold 17.6 inches of water, which is about a foot more water than we had last year at this time! Although the site is still about 87% of normal (a 2.7-inch deficit), the Wolf Creek Summit Snotel site, which sits at 11,000 feet, is reporting 21.7 inches of water

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Current Snow Situation

Jan 5, 2019
1 min

Current Snow Situation

Waking up to nearly two feet of fresh snow was a great way to start 2019! The New Year's Storm ranks as one of the top storms of the decade! Wolf Creek Ski Area received 34 inches of fluff and nearly everyone in the the Southern San Juan foothills awoke to 1 to 2 feet of new snow. So how does the current snowpack compare to last year and the norm? After a snowy October, November was a disappointment, and so was much of December. Which is why the recent storm was an incred

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What Does a Strong October Mean for the Rest of the Snow Season?

Nov 5, 2018
2 min

What Does a Strong October Mean for the Rest of the Snow Season?

The snow season in the Southern San Juan Mountains is off to a strong start! Wolf Creek Ski Area opened on October 13, only 5 days later than their record (October 8, 2011). What can a strong October tell us about the rest of the snow season? The South San Juans on 11/1/18 (Photo by Chris Rapp) To answer that question, I compiled October precipitation totals between 1979-2018 and plotted them against annual snow accumulation at the Upper San Juan SNOTEL site, located at 10,

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Spring Runoff Update

May 16, 2018
2 min

Spring Runoff Update

Peak spring runoff in the the San Juan River occurred in Pagosa Springs on May 10th at 11:45 PM at 1330 cfs! Even though the Upper San Juan Snotel Site ran out of snow on April 30th, the late spring snow storm on May 2nd slowed the melt, rejuvenated the snowpack, and extended the peak runoff event into May instead of April. Although 1330 cfs is barely over 50% of normal, it's about 4.5 times higher than the dismal 2002 peak spring runoff value of 296 cfs. The 2018 peak sprin

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Current Snow Standings and San Juan River Spring Runoff Prediction

May 2, 2018
2 min

Current Snow Standings and San Juan River Spring Runoff Prediction

Wondering how the 2018 snowpack stacks up against recent years with big summer wildfires? And when and how much streamflow will our meager snowpack generate in the San Juan River this spring? The Upper San Juan SNOTEL site ran out of snow this week on 4/30/18. May 1st is a good date to compare snowpack to the historical record because snow measurements extend back to 1936. Based upon the site's 82-year history, the site has only been out of snow before May 1st one other ti

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Current Snow Standings and San Juan River Spring Runoff Prediction

Apr 23, 2018
2 min

Current Snow Standings and San Juan River Spring Runoff Prediction

Wondering how the 2018 snowpack stacks up against recent years with big summer wildfires? And when and how much streamflow will our meager snowpack generate in the San Juan River this spring? Despite last week's snowstorm, which added 0.2 inches of water to the Upper San Juan SNOTEL site, the snowpack has continued to plummet, which probably solidified this year's rank as the 2nd lowest since 1979. There is only 5.1 inches of water left in the snowpack, which is 17% of norm

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Current Snow Standings and San Juan River Spring Runoff Prediction

Apr 10, 2018
2 min

Current Snow Standings and San Juan River Spring Runoff Prediction

Wondering how the 2018 snowpack stacks up against the worst 4 years in recent history? And when and how much streamflow will our meager snowpack generate in the San Juan River this spring? If you're a kayaker, you might want to drag your boat out mid-week and you might catch some fleeting high water! The 2018 winter started out similar to the dry winters of 1990, 1996, and 2000. Unfortunately, March was a bust, and so far April has not panned out. As a result, we've falle

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Current Snow Standings

Mar 11, 2018
1 min

Current Snow Standings

How does the current snowpack in the Southern San Juans stack up against the worst 4 years in recent history? This graph shows the season-long accumulation of the snowpack at the Upper San Juan SNOTEL site near the summit of Wolf Creek Pass. I included the 30-year median to compare the bad years to a normal year. 2018 is the red line. After the snowpack more than doubled in mid February, March has started off with a lull in moisture. Currently, we are nearly tied with 1990

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Current Snow Standings

Feb 18, 2018
1 min

Current Snow Standings

How does the current snowpack in the Southern San Juans stack up against the worst 4 years in recent history? This graph shows the season-long accumulation of the snowpack at the Upper San Juan SNOTEL site near the summit of Wolf Creek Pass. I included the 30-year median to compare the bad years to a normal year. 2018 is the red line. Mid-February moisture arrived this week just like it did in 1990, 1996, and 2000. And thankfully, we finally surpassed 2002, the worst droug

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Who Stole Our Winter?

Feb 11, 2018
3 min

Who Stole Our Winter?

Wondering who stole our winter? It may have been a girl who periodically visits the tropical Pacific. Weak La Nina conditions have existed in the tropical Pacific throughout the 2018 winter, which may partially explain the missing precipitation in the Southern San Juan Mountains. I was curious if La Nina was also involved in the other major snow heists over the past 67 years. Percent of Average Snow Water Equivalent in Colorado's Major Watershed (NRCS) A background check of

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Current Snow Standings: February 1st

Feb 2, 2018
1 min

Current Snow Standings: February 1st

How does the current snowpack in the Southern San Juans stack up against the 4 worst years in recent history? This graph shows the season-long accumulation of the snowpack at the Upper San Juan SNOTEL site near the summit of Wolf Creek Pass. I included the most recent 30-year average to compare the bad years to an average year. 2018 is the red line. This year is amazingly similar to 1990, 1996, and 2000. During those 3 years, the snow didn't start piling up until mid to la

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Current Snow Standings

Jan 16, 2018
1 min

Current Snow Standings

How does the current snowpack in the Southern San Juans stack up against the 4 worst years in recent history? This graph shows the season-long accumulation of the snowpack at the Upper San Juan SNOTEL site. Surprisingly, the 2018 snowpack (in red) is ahead of the 1990, 1996, and 2000 snowpacks. Interestingly, for each of those years, the snow finally started accumulating in mid February and then additional storms added significant gains in March as well. However, all 3 year

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Where's the Snow in Pagosa Springs?

Jan 2, 2018
3 min

Where's the Snow in Pagosa Springs?

Why isn't it snowing? When will it snow next? When (if ever) has our snowpack been this bad? These are all questions buzzing around Pagosa Springs especially if you just purchased a new snow blower or season pass at Wolf Creek. Currently, Pagosa Peak appears snow-free from town and Wolf Creek Ski Area is struggling to maintain their meager 16 inch base. As a Colorado native and resident of Pagosa Springs since 1999, I expect a deep snowpack to add beauty to the dormant

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